FORECASTING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN THE REPUBLIC OF MORDOVIA 

Burlankov Stepan Petrovich, Doctor of economic sciences, professor, sub-department of restaurant business, Plehanov Russian University of Economics (36 Stremyannoy lane, Moscow, Russia), spbur1@rambler.ru
Ivanova Natal'ya Vasil'evna, Postgraduate student, National Research Ogarev Mordovia State University (61 Bolshevistskaya street, Saransk, Russia), nataliva1990@mail.ru

338.4

10.21685/2072-3016-2017-4-15

Background. The development of markets for agricultural products is an important strategic objective. Strengthening the country’s food security largely depends on the functioning of its markets for agricultural products. The state of the Russian economy is determined by the level of development of its regions as independent subjects of economic relations in the framework of a unified national economy. In this regard, the prediction factors of agricultural production with the aim of creating conditions for sustainable development and functioning of the food system in the Republic of Mordovia is relevant at both the Federal and regional level. The aim of this work is to make a prediction of agricultural production in the Republic of Mordovia for the from 2017–2020 Years.
Materials and methods. Implementation of research tasks was achieved on the basis of the analysis of agricultural data collections of statistics of the Republic of Mordovia, publications in periodicals on this issue, the legislative and regulatory acts of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Mordovia for the development of agriculture. Methodological potential includes the General scientific (systemicevolutionary and institutional) and specific methods of research (monographic, statistical and economic, settlement-constructive, and extrapolation of trends (trends), balance sheet, economic-mathematical modeling).
Results. There was made the forecast of agricultural production in the Republic of Mordovia for the period from 2017 to 2020, analyzed the state of agricultural markets, the common assessment of their potential for identified vulnerable and nonvulnerable markets of agricultural products in the Republic of Mordovia.
Conclusions. Predicting the most and least effective factors of agricultural production  will allow to create conditions for sustainable development and functioning of the food system in the Republic of Mordovia for the from 2017 to 2020.

agricultural products, manufacturing, forecasting, market factor coefficient

1. O Gosudarstvennoy programme razvitiya sel'skogo khozyaystva i regulirovaniya rynkov sel'skokhozyaystvennoy produktsii, syr'ya i prodovol'stviya na 2013–2020 gody (s izmeneniyami na 19 dekabrya 2014 goda): Postanovlenie Pravitel'stva Rossiyskoy Federa tsii ot 14 iyulya 2012 g. № 717 [On the State program of agriculture development and agricultural goods and raw materials market regulation in 2013–2020 (revised on 19th December 2014): the ordinance of the RF Government from 14th July 2012 № 717]. Available at: http://docs.cntd.ru/document/902361843
2. Sel'skoe khozyaystvo Respubliki Mordoviya. Statisticheskiy sbornik [Agriculture in the republic of Mordovia. A statistical collection]. Saransk, 2015, no. 301, 28 p.
3. Federal'naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoy statistiki. Territorial'nyy organ Federal'noy sluzhby gosudarstvennoy statistiki po Respublike Mordoviya. Uchet skota v Respublike Mordoviya na 1 yanvarya 2016 goda. Statisticheskiy byulleten' № 311 [The Federal Service of State Statistics. The territorial body of the Federal Service of State Statistics in the Republic of Mordovia. Cattle record in the Republic of Mordovia on the 1st of January 2016. Statistical bulletin № 311]. Saransk, 2016, 11 p.
4. Federal'naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoy statistiki. Territorial'nyy organ gosudarstvennoy statistiki po Respublike Mordoviya. Posevnye ploshchadi, valovye sbory i urozhaynost' sel'skokhozyaystvennykh kul'tur v 2015 godu. Statisticheskiy byulleten' № 313 [The Federal Service of State Statistics. The territorial body of the Federal Service of State Statistics in the Republic of Mordovia. Sown are, croppage and crop capacity in the Republic of Mordovia in 2015. Statistical bulletin № 313]. Saransk, 2016, 31 p.
5. Federal'naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoy statistiki. Territorial'nyy organ gosudarstvennoy statistiki po Respublike Mordoviya. O sostoyanii potrebitel'skogo rynka Respubliki Mordoviya v 2015 godu. Analiticheskaya zapiska № 611 [The Federal Service of State Statistics. The territorial body of the Federal Service of State Statistics in the Republic of Mordovia. On the condition of consumers’ market in the Republic of Mordovia in 2015. Analytical bulletin № 611]. Saransk, 2016, 23 p.
6. Federal'naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoy statistiki. Tsentral'naya baza statisticheskikh dannykh [The Federal Service of State Statistics. The central base of statistical data]. Available at: http://www.gks.ru
7. Burlankov S. P., Ivanova N. V. Sovremennye problemy nauki i obrazovaniya [Modern problems of science and education]. 2015, no. 2. Available at: http://www.scienceeducation. ru/129-21727 (accessed September 21, 2015).
8. Ivanova N. V., Burlankov S. P. Vestnik NII gumanitarnykh nauk pri Pravitel'stve Respubliki Mordoviya [Bulletin of Research Institute of Humanities under the Government of the Republic of Mordovia]. 2015, no. 4 (36), pp. 172–177.